Mutual Funds – Historic Analysis: US Small Cap

Small cap mirage - running 16,500 investment strategy combinations over 20 years highlights the delusion of leveraging basic historical analysis for selecting small cap funds that consistently beat the index! Note that 20% of the funds reclassified themselves (some more than 4 times), there is marginal prediction power in performance measures (less than 1 in 5 chances), performance has struggled to beat the Russell 2000, Covid literally flipped the signals and yet, over the last decade the US Small Cap mutual fund market grew 2.5x!  For the US Small Cap mutual fund market, assuming the Russell...

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