US AGG Mutual Funds – Basic Historic Analysis: Are you always wrong?

With reference to the US AGG Mutual Funds, broadly speaking no. For the overall US AGG mutual fund market, assuming the Bloomberg US Agg Bond TR USD as the index, there is value in looking at historical price data (and the derived performance measures). As illustrated in Table 1, the overall market (without sampling) generated a 0.52 - 0.58% average annualized excess return over the Index (for each of 1, 2-, 3-, 5- or 10-year periods over the 12/31/2000 - 12/31/2022 evaluation period).  With sampling, based on 40+ performance measures as illustrated in Table 2, there can be...

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Is Artificial Intelligence deployment the new Y2K?

In the realm of Artificial Intelligence (AI) some amazing things are being done by some amazing people that are leading to some amazing results. Hopefully this pacifies the shallow learning experts.  Now for the deep(er) learning aspects of the current push of AI everywhere and for all.  For the older engineers, most of the models being deployed (with updates) have been there for many years so what gives?  Well for one we know that great strides in readily available computing power have been a great catalyst for the more pervasive push of AI.  Another has been the ever-increasing...

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